Statistical Analysis of Gov. Palin’s Endorsements
by Ron Devito, US4Palin.com
Since leaving the office of Governor, Sarah Palin’s political action committee (SarahPAC) has endorsed 73 candidates for the US House of Representatives and Senate as well as state governors and attorney generals. Out of the 73 formally endorsed candidates, there are 52 declared winners, 13 losses and eight are yet to be determined. Thus far, her success rate is at 71%. If all eight remaining candidates win, her success rate will increase to a phenomenal 81%.
This is a 90% success rate. Metaphorically speaking, Gov. Palin set up a sniper position and eliminated her targets from two miles away…
The Function of Endorsements
Many people grossly misinterpret the meaning of endorsement success. We do NOT attribute a candidate’s election win solely to Gov. Palin’s endorsement. It is a matter of fact that candidates do not win and lose solely on endorsements; candidates win and lose on how well or poorly they run their campaigns and how well their messages resonate with voters. However, endorsements or the lack thereof can be a telltale sign of a well-run campaign versus one that is in deep trouble.
Consider the case of Michael Grimm, who won the NY-13 Congressional seat. Grimm had a large number of endorsements from local and national political heavy hitters, Gov. Palin among them. Grimm also ran a professional, aggressive, and enthusiastic campaign of which I was privileged to be a part. The endorsements were part of the package that helped propel him to victory, but certainly not all of it. Grimm’s campaign was also old school – and it worked. Congressman-elect Grimm and I walked the Election Districts, talking with voters face-to-face about issues that mattered to them. When a voter had an issue, we reported it to the campaign and the voter got a personal call from Grimm or Guy Molinari, our beloved former Borough President.
Now, consider the case of Carl Paladino whose campaign slogan might as well have been, “I love the smell of burning bridges in the morning. It smells like…like…defeat.” Carl “leave no bridge unburned” Paladino had few endorsements of any significance. Gov. Palin stayed silent on the NY Gubernatorial race. Her silence spoke volumes. Clearly, she was not going to endorse the erratic Paladino or the liberal Democrat who, predictably, won the race.
Endorsements are more critical in primaries where voters are getting to know a candidate for the first time. Official endorsements from multiple heavy hitters do help a campaign. Such an endorsement is akin to references we provide when looking for a job and performs the same function. Simply put, endorsements fall in the class of “necessary but insufficient” to a candidate’s success.
What Endorsement Success Means
What these numbers mean is that we can count on Gov. Palin, in a worst-case scenario, to make an accurate assessment about a given candidate’s electability and suitability for the office 71% of the time. In the best case, she can do it 90% of the time. The numbers indicate that she is politically astute and seasoned. She’s only been doing this for nearly two decades, after all. The numbers indicate that she is a person with considerable political capital, stature and popularity with the conservative base.
Professional political analysts and bloggers alike agree that these victories position Gov. Palin well to run for President in 2012. Michael Reagan said so and Jedediah Bila concurs. Robert Wiles, whose content we syndicate from Palin Promotions delineated in his article why these are her victories, and how the GOP Establishment either contributed nothing or worked to undermine her.
“[F]or the boys, who would also like to get the nomination for President of the United States – you know, if they don’t catch up pretty quick, it could be evening in America for them,” Michael Reagan said.
Indeed, Gov. Palin is showing the world what a woman can do. On November 4, 2010, her ‘Mama Grizzlies’ smashed numerous glass ceilings with their sonic booms. In 806 days, Gov. Palin may smash the biggest and hardest one of all.